3️⃣ Huge Changes Coming Soon, Home Inventory is Declining & Tampa Bay Holiday Market Guide

December 01, 2022

As we enter into the final month of the year, Tampa is beginning to get festive, the housing market is seeing the light beyond the cloudy economy, and we're preparing to open P-Fit at Bexley next month.Hope you're having a productive month despite all of the disruptions and distractions of this time of the year!

And if you want to see some of the Pasco & Hillsborough local numbers as of November, scroll down to "The Latest Local Numbers." Enjoy!

- Sean

3️⃣ Biggest Changes Coming to Land O' Lakes, FL in 5 years

Angeline Project

Pasco County is an underrated area of Tampa Bay. Land O' Lakes in particular is seeing a massive overhaul in the next 5 years.This will open the big debate... which is better- Wesley Chapel or Land O' Lakes?

  1. The Moffitt Cancer Center: Pasco Campus - is a monumental change. This will attract world-class talent for thousands of jobs. Where talent moves, money follows which could bring even more things such as companies, retail, commercial, etc.

  2. Angeline Project - this community alone will be a landmark project for the county. No other community will compare to what this will offer and bring along with it. A rising tide lifts all ships.

  3. The Hub at Bexley - this is where Laura and I will be opening P-Fit, the platinum standard for fitness. The Hub will be a huge central location for shopping, restaurants and will be the center for growth. Similar to the Grove in Wesley Chapel but arguably better.😉

What do you think of these projects? Do you think they're good or bad? And what major projects did I miss?

📉 Surprisingly, the inventory of unsold homes is ticking down finally.

Altos Research

I know lots of people are hoping for some major housing crisis, but the data isn't showing that:

  • Redfin reports that investor purchases dipped 30.2% YoY in Q3. However, some major investors like JPMorgan and Blackstone are still bullish. This means less competition from investors, which is good news for buyers.

  • Single-family homebuilding fell sharply in October, dropping to its lowest rate since May 2020. Further limited available inventory for buyers.

  • Redfin reports that home buyers nationwide need an average income of $107K to afford a home, up 46% (64% in Tampa) from the same time last year. Since the start of the pandemic, the monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home skyrocketed 70% to $2,682, pricing many buyers out of the market.

  • Interest rates are dropping to mid-6%'s. We expect to see 5% middle of next year. Currently, we're at the LOWEST mortgage applications in history when adjusted for population. So this drop WILL bring more buyers back into the market.

  • Around 90% of US homeowners own their home outright or hold a low fixed-rate mortgage. Some of Lowe's strongest consumers for home improvement are millennials.

  • In Q4 2019, US households held about $1 trillion in what was effectively cash—currency and accounts against which checks could be written. By the 2nd quarter of 2022, the amount had leapt to $4.7 trillion. Nothing like this has happened in the past 70 years—though consumer spending stats point to something similar having occurred during World War II. And many companies & corporations are sitting on trillions of cash. This massive cash reserve makes this 'recession' very different.

aka- This isn't 2008

Many experts are expecting a market (economy) rebound in 2024.

However many major financial players see investing in real estate as only of the few hedges against inflation with stable and sizable returns in the long run.

The lesson: 

  • In 2001, few were moving due to uncertainty around 9/11.

  • 2008-2012, even fewer were moving due to financial uncertainty.

  • 2020, only some were moving early on. Most waited until 2021.

If you want outsized returns, you have to move against the market even when it's difficult.

 "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffet

So the key is to buy when other people aren't buying. Right now, there's way more fear than greed. 

🎄 Festivities Begin: Tampa Bay Holiday Markets Guide

ThatsSoTampa made a comprehensive list of all of the Holiday Markets in Tampa.

Oxford Exchange Holiday Bazaar - December 1, 6pm-10pm 

Ornamental - December 3, 5pm-9pm

Vintage Marche - December 2-4, Friday 4pm-8pm 

Holiday Indie Flea St. Pete - December 4, 12pm-4pm

Dade City Country Christmas Market - December 3, 9am-5pm

Christmas Mardis Gras Shoppe - December 3, 12pm-5pm

Holly Jolly Market in the Alley - December 3. 5pm-9pm

Holiday Shop Hop - December 8, 5pm-8pm 

Water Street Promenade - December 8, 5pm-8pm 

Vintage Roost Ybor City - December 9-11, 9am-5pm 

3 Daughters Brewing Holiday Market - December 10, 12pm-4pm

Lakeland Holiday Night Market - December 10, 5pm-10pm

Holiday Art & Craft Expo - December 10-11, 10am-4pm

Second Sunday Lakeland Artisan Market - December 11, 12pm-5pm

Second Sunday Market + Art Walk - December 11, 11am-3pm

Blush Coffee & Tea Holiday Bazaar - December 11, 4pm-7pm

Heights Night Market - December 14, 5:30pm-9:30pm

Studio@620 Holizaar - December 17, 10am-3pm

Mistletoe Market - December 17, 10am-2pm

Winter in the Wood Art Market - December 18, 2pm-7pm

Moonlight Holiday Market - December 19, 5pm

📊 The Latest Local Numbers

If you're curious about your home's value, let me know and I'll provide a free, no obligation, custom market analysis of your home.

Or if you want to get an estimated home value immediately, check it out here.

👀 In Other News:

  • Properties near an @AldiUSA have an elevated return on investment for both investors and home sellers, the @Attomdata report said. They found that home flippers enjoyed the highest five-year ROI for homes near Aldi stores (54% vs. 28% for Whole Foods and 25% for Trader Joe’s). Homes near Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods had the highest average values, and homes near Aldi experienced the biggest jump in appreciation. Hint... There's an Aldi's in Land O' Lakes

  • The maximum size of home-mortgage loans eligible for backing by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - or conforming loans - will rise to $1,089,300 in 2023 in high-cost markets, such as parts of California and New York, from $970,800 this year. Conforming loans generally come with lower closing costs and can require a smaller down payment than mortgages that exceed the limit, known as jumbo mortgages. For most parts of the US, loan limits will rise to $726,200 (Tampa Bay) from a 2022 maximum of $647,200. This will help borrowers.

  • 5 kitchen trends to inspire your next home.

  • 7 smart ways to lower the cost of buying a new construction home.

  • Goldman Sachs weighs in on inflation.

Pending home sales fall for fifth straight month... 

This is what the new is talking about today.

But did you know the recent data for pending homes sales is based on October?

So 30 days behind. 

And to make things worse...

Most home sales data are from homes that have sold 30-90 days ago.

Homes are under contract for 30-60 days usually before the sell.

What this means is most mainstream news headlines you see are at leas 60 days behind today's market.

Lesson: Don't listen to the news to stay informed on real estate today.

If you want to know what's really going on then speak with an expert you trust. Ask questions so you can make a better more informed decision.

Hope you're ready to have an amazing end of the year!

- Sean and the Bello Home Team

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