The Market Shifted & Buyers Are Feeling The Change

#1 in the US

If you didn't know, Zillow ranked Tampa Bay as the #1 hottest housing market in the US due to a combination of strong forecasted home value growth, a thriving job market, relatively scarce and fast-moving inventory, and demographics that indicate a good number of potential buyers.

And for good reason. Tampa sees over 300 days of sunshine, has a more favorable lifestyle than Orlando, has a better climate than Jacksonville, and we have a better quality of life for the cost compared to Miami, plus most major metros like New York, Atlanta, DC, Chicago, LA, etc.

But it's getting even better. There's well over $5 billion in development projects coming to the Tampa Bay area.

• Motor Enclave - $100 Million experiential car club community in Tampa Florida. A 200-acre site with 300+ private garages, 1.6-mile Tilke-designed Performance Circuit, and a 60+ acre Off-Road Experience.

• Water Street - $3.5 Billion is the first neighborhood in the world to be certified by the International WELL Building Institute for wellness and advancing healthier lifestyles. 56 acres in Downtown Tampa with 3500 new luxury residences, The Pearl a new oyster bar from award-winning Ocean Prime, Predalina a new Mediterranean restaurant by Tampa-based hospitality company Oxford Commons, Boulon Brasserie a new French Bistro by Next Level Brand, and much more! And the first 5-star Hotel The Tampa EDITION is designed by world-class talent and will also offer 38 limited-EDITION residences.

• Midtown Tampa - $500 Million project with Hotels, Residences, Office spaces, Restaurants (Bellabrava-Italian new world Trattoria, Sal Y Mar rooftop Bar, True Food Kitchen real food and real ingredients only, Walk Ons made from scratch sports bar, Shake Shack) Whole Foods, REI, Shops and numerous retail spaces

• Westshore Marina District - $1 Billion project offering 1.5 scenic miles of waterfront, green space, marina and open bay, this all-new, 52-acre destination presents a fresh, contemporary environment for living, shopping, dining and recreation. Its brand new, full-service marina. The deepwater harbor features a 15’ channel and 8-12 feet throughout the basin. New concrete floating docks feature approximately 159 slips accommodating vessels from 40 feet in length to 90 feet.

• Plus over a thousand luxury residences will be added by ultra luxury high rise developments throughout Bayshore and Downtown Tampa, like the Ritz Carlton Residences on Bayshore and One Tampa a 55-story residential tower that will be the tallest skyscraper on Florida’s west coast.

I think it's safe to say that Tampa has a bright future for many years to come.

- Sean

Nationally: Fannie Mae's New Predictions

The economists at Fannie Mae have made a major adjustment to their home sales forecasts. Not only do they expect home sales and refinances to continue declining through 2023, they also believe a soft recession is on the horizon. Here are their updated predictions:

• They now predict a 7.4% decline in home sales this year (up from 4.1%)

• They now predict a 9.7% decline in home sales in 2023 (up from 2.7%)

• Refinances are expected to make up only 32% of mortgage lender activity in 2022, down from 58% in 2021

• They expect GDP to decline 0.1% in 2023. That’s down from an expected growth of 2.2%

Our take

Overall, this is good news. It means the market is finally moving from a red hot seller's market to a more normal market. We're already seeing this affect buyer demand a little and price reductions for the ambitious seller's who overshot the market. As prices keep going up and rates rise along with them, it will become harder for your sellers to sell.

Now as a seller, you will no longer get 10 offers in 3 days. Pricing with the market and where it's heading, continuing to market over several weeks, being creative, and having the right strategy will matter even more.

But as a buyer or seller, there's an opportunity in a softer market that doesn't last long. You can sell still while buyer demand is high, rates are still historically lower, and home values are higher but then you can have more flexibility in options now.

So these questions could help you make the best decision for you...

• In the coming months, where do you think interest rates will go? Up or down?

• Do you believe home prices will appreciate over the next decade?

• Can you turn back time?

• And given all that, when is the best time to buy/sell/act?

Time in the market outperforms timing the market.

Locally: Tampa Bay Housing Market Shows Signs of Cooling Down

As a result, May home shoppers had 8% more active listings to scroll through than they did last year.

In Tampa Bay, new listings increased by 11.2% year-over-year with a median price of $437,000, a 30% increase since last year.

Despite inventory growing, homebuyers will notice that home prices nationwide are still reaching all-time highs. The median asking price of homes found a new apex of $447,000, a 17.6% increase over last year and up 35.4% compared with May 2020.

“More inventory should eventually translate into a slower pace of sales and [slower] price gains,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist of Realtor.com. “With prices still growing at double digits, we’re a long way from price declines, but price growth is likely to slow.”

Our take

This is good news. As I mentioned above, a changing market is not a bad thing, and moving back to a new normal housing market will be good for buyers and sellers. Tampa has a unique advantage that most cities do not have which is the high growth potential (mentioned above) and it's a huge migration market so demand will stay strong.

Many are wondering about a crash, but that's the wrong way to think about it. Could the stock markets and economy crash? Yes. But housing is in a completely different place compared to 2008. Even in 2008 home prices only fell 20% (one of the most extreme housing crises in history). And over the last 6 recessions, home values actually rose 3-7% 4 out of 6 times, and in the only other recession apart from 2008 in the 90's home values only dropped 2%...

Today’s market really is so different from 2008. These days, so many buyers are in a better position. They used cash, paid sizable down payments, and locked in super low rates. It’s good to see solid numbers that back up what we’ve been saying—the market may be cooling, but it’s still in a great, stable place.

So the question is not what's going on in the market or if it's the right time in the market, but instead, what's going on with your home goals and needs? Is it the right time for YOU?!

The Local Numbers

In Other News:

• 5 summer trends to brighten bland bedrooms

• The housing market right now, explained in six tweets

• Even financial expert Suze Orman says real estate is still a buy

• The Top US Housing Markets for Investors

We are approximately 3 months away from the opening of our newest venture and cannot wait to open our doors. We have a lot of preparation and work to do in the next 90 days but we couldn’t be more excited to help our community with the first P-Fit (Platinum Fitness) located in Pasco County.

We will be in the Hub at Bexley complex surrounded by amazing restaurants and other local businesses. Visit our Bexley P-Fit The Platinum Standard of Fitness page to follow our progress as we build.

Cheers to your health and wellness.

Hope you all have a Happy 4th of July!

- Sean and the Bello Home Team

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