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🔥 Pasco’s Rapid Growth, Business Boom & Spring Market Updates

🔥 Pasco’s Rapid Growth, Business Boom & Spring Market Updates

Check out what's happening in the Pasco and Tampa economies this week.

Sean Bates
March 13, 2025

Happy Thursday!

Another week, another round of big updates for Pasco County! Whether you’re looking for something fun to do this weekend, keeping an eye on the latest market trends, or just curious about what’s shaking up the local retail scene, we’ve got you covered.

🐶 First up—Pasco is packed with events this weekend, from a St. Patrick’s Day street party to a Renaissance festival, plus some unique gatherings like a book swap and a plein air art exhibit. (And yes, there’s even a dog-friendly pub crawl!)

📈 Growth is the name of the game in Pasco right now. With new businesses moving in, housing demand on the rise, and major infrastructure projects in the works, the county is becoming more self-sufficient than ever.

🛍️ Retail is booming, with national brands staking their claim in Pasco. A massive new Target is on the way, and rental rates are now outpacing neighboring counties—proof that this market is heating up fast.

🎸 Meanwhile, we’re saying goodbye to Rock & Brews in Wesley Chapel as Portillo’s moves in. If you’re a fan of their legendary Italian beef sandwiches, get ready.

🏡 And in real estate news, mortgage rates have dipped below 7%, which could be a game-changer for spring buyers. But with prices still high, is this the break we’ve been waiting for?

Let’s dive in!

—Sean

🎉 Exciting Events You Can’t Miss This Weekend in Pasco County

St. Puppy’s Day Crawl

Join in a celebration featuring food and drink specials, a costume contest, and adoptable dogs. The ticketck includes an event bandana, dog swag bag, and discounts and giveaways at participating businesses for both humans and pups. A portion of the proceeds will be donated to The Runaways Animal Rescue.
📍 Location: Downtown New Port Richey
📅 Date & Time: March 13, 5:00 PM - 8:00 PM
🎟️ Tickets: $15 for the first dog, $5 per additional dog (up to three per family); Day-of tickets: $20 first dog, $5 for additional dogs (available at Cotee River Creamery)
🌐 Website: St. Puppy's Day Crawl

Bay Area Renaissance Festival

Experience a magical 16th-century European village featuring 15 stages of exciting entertainment. Over 100 artisans will showcase and sell their handcrafted goods. Enjoy full-contact live armored jousting and seven themed weekends.
📍 Location: 12838 Auton Road, Dade City, FL
📅 Date & Time: March 15 - March 30, 10:00 AM - 6:00 PM
🎟️ Tickets: Starting at $18
🌐 Website: bayarearenfest.com

Greenspace Gathering

Join the library for a vibrant day in the greenspace filled with relaxation, nature, and community fun. Activities include family-centered yoga, a plant sale, a Baker House open house, a drum circle, and a book sale.
📍 Location: Centennial Park Branch, 5740 Moog Road, Holiday
📅 Date & Time: March 15, 10:00 AM - 1:00 PM
🌐 Website: Greenspace Gathering

St. Paddy’s Street Party

Celebrate St. Patrick’s Day weekend with live entertainment, games, and activities. Enjoy a cornhole tournament, glitter tattoos and balloons, a 360 photo booth, a juggling clown and stilt walker, live music, and a fresh market.
📍 Location: Shops at Wiregrass, Piazza Ave., Wesley Chapel
📅 Date & Time: March 15, 12:00 PM - 1:00 AM
🌐 Website: St Paddy's Street Party

Dogs' Day in Dade City Fundraiser

Does your dog have what it takes to be the next Dogs' Day in Dade City Dog Mayor? Visit the event’s Facebook page to find the application, rules, and more.
📍 Location: Agnes Lamb Park, 14200 9th St., Dade City
📅 Date & Time: March 15
📞 Contact: Lucy Avila at 352-424-4972 or [email protected]

Brooker Creek Preserve Plein Air 2025

Artists will showcase their talent with artwork inspired by the natural landscape of Brooker Creek Preserve. The exhibition will be open for viewing, with pieces available for sale.
📍 Location: Brooker Creek Preserve, 3940 Keystone Road, Tarpon Springs
📅 Date & Time: Saturdays & Sundays, March 15 - April 27, 12:00 PM - 3:00 PM
🌐 Website: Friends of Brooker Creek Preserve Home Page

Piano Performance - Priscilla Fullerton

Enjoy a delightful afternoon of live music as pianist Priscilla Fullerton showcases works by female composers. The concert is free and open to all, but seating is limited.
📍 Location: Hudson Regional Branch, 8012 Library Road
📅 Date & Time: March 15, 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM

3rd Annual Shoot for Post-Traumatic Growth

More than a marksmanship contest, this event supports veterans through camaraderie and fellowship. The clay shoot will be followed by a catered lunch, raffle, silent auction, and awards ceremony.
📍 Location: Tampa Bay Sporting Clays, 10514 Ehren Cutoff, Land O' Lakes
📅 Date & Time: March 16, 9:00 AM
🎟️ Tickets: $150 per shooter, $600 per four-person team
🌐 Website: 3rd Annual Shoot for Post-Traumatic Growth

Mulligan’s Cup 2025

The Mulligan’s Cup returns with a two-player team scramble format. Registration includes greens fees, cart fees, range balls, an Irish buffet, drink tickets, contests, raffle prizes, and more.
📍 Location: Plantation Palms Golf Club, 23253 Plantation Palms Blvd., Land O' Lakes
📅 Date & Time: March 16, 9:00 AM
🎟️ Tickets: Full golf member: $80 | PDM member: $100 | Public: $125
🌐 Website: Social Links | Plantation Palms

18th Annual Plant-Based Taste Fest

Join Dr. Sondra Shields, Board-Certified anesthesiologist and minister of health at Tampa First SDA Church, for a presentation on wellness: "From Sluggish to Energized: How to Wake Up to Wellness." Reservations required.
📍 Location: 7333 Dairy Road, Zephyrhills
📅 Date & Time: March 16, 11:30 AM & 1:00 PM
🎟️ Tickets: $5 (Call 813-782-2000 for reservations)

Book Swap

Bring books you’ve read a million times or ones collecting dust and swap them for new reads. The event includes a swap area with tables and chairs for browsing. Participants receive a Swap Saver card with discounts for 10 local businesses.
📍 Location: Three Quartz Moon, 5840 Main St., New Port Richey
📅 Date & Time: March 16, 3:30 PM

🚀 Pasco County Growth Sparks New Opportunities

Driving the news: Pasco County is experiencing a transformation, balancing economic growth, increasing housing demand, and complex municipal planning.

A recent discovery in New Port Richey and Port Richey—where homes straddle both cities—symbolizes the evolving coordination needed among local governments.

Details:

Pasco’s retail sector is expanding, fueled by a growing population.
The Suncoast Expressway is gearing up for expansion to address rising traffic congestion.
Private investment is revitalizing U.S. 19’s "zombie corridors" after years of stagnation.
Housing remains a top concern, with workforce and affordable housing development racing to meet demand, particularly around Moffitt’s Speros campus, which will add up to 4,000 jobs.
Local leaders, including Greater Pasco Chamber CEO Jamie Minotti, are working to balance tradition and modern business needs.
The county's largest employers remain in health care, reinforcing the area’s economic focus.

Why it matters: Pasco County’s rapid growth is making it a more self-sufficient community, reducing the need for residents to commute to Hillsborough or Pinellas for work and amenities.

Investments in housing, transportation, and retail development are shaping a more connected and thriving region.

The big picture: Long-term planning is essential as Pasco navigates development opportunities and infrastructure challenges.

Coordination between cities, businesses, and stakeholders will determine how well the county adapts to its expanding role in Tampa Bay’s economy.

What’s next:

The county is eyeing the renewal of projects like the Legacy at Wiregrass, which could revive past development plans near Orlando Health hospital.
Transportation and hurricane recovery funds remain key priorities for county officials.
A growing debate over whether Wesley Chapel should incorporate adds another layer to Pasco’s evolving landscape.

The bottom line:
Pasco County’s growth is accelerating, bringing both opportunities and challenges. How leaders navigate these shifts will define the area’s future as a dynamic place to live, work, and invest.

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🤩 Pasco County Retail Boom Shows
No Signs of Slowing

Driving the news: Pasco County is experiencing a retail surge as new businesses flock to the area, capitalizing on available land and increasing demand.

Developers are investing in large-scale projects, and major retailers are securing prime locations, signaling long-term growth.

Details:

Pasco’s retail market spans over 11 million square feet, with neighborhood centers dominating at 7.8 million square feet.
The vacancy rate sits at just 4%, reflecting strong demand for retail space.
A 148,500-square-foot Target is under construction in the Grove at Wesley Chapel, exceeding the chain’s average store size by 20,000 square feet.
Rental rates in Pasco are now outpacing Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, averaging $28.49 to $37.51 per square foot.
179,264 square feet of retail space is currently under construction.

Why it matters: Pasco County’s retail boom is a direct result of its residential expansion, making it an attractive location for businesses looking to serve the growing population.

With more space available and lower costs than other Tampa Bay counties, developers and retailers are seizing the opportunity to establish a presence in one of Florida’s fastest-growing areas.

The big picture: Retailers aren’t just setting up shop in Wesley Chapel—the county’s traditional retail hub—but are expanding into areas like Trinity, Land O’Lakes, San Antonio, and Odessa.

Mixed-use developments, such as the $2 billion DoubleBranch project, are drawing major brands looking to tap into Pasco’s upward trajectory.

Between the lines: National retailers are eyeing Pasco for first-time locations, suggesting confidence in the market’s long-term potential.

Developers report strong interest in new properties before they even hit the market, reinforcing Pasco’s position as a retail hotspot.

What’s next: With rising rental rates and limited new construction, landlords have the upper hand.

Tenants must bring value beyond just paying rent—offering unique experiences or services that complement Pasco’s evolving retail landscape.

The bottom line: Pasco County is no longer a secondary option for retailers—it’s becoming a primary destination for businesses seeking growth.

With strategic development and increasing demand, Pasco’s retail resurgence is just beginning.

🎸 Rock & Brews Bids Farewell to Wesley Chapel, Making Way for Portillo’s

Rock & Brews, the rock-themed restaurant co-founded by KISS legends Paul Stanley and Gene Simmons, will close its Wesley Chapel location on March 24. After nearly five years, the venue is making way for Portillo’s, the Chicago-based favorite known for its hot dogs and Italian beef sandwiches.

Portillo’s plans to demolish the existing building and construct a new drive-thru restaurant, marking its second location in the Tampa Bay area. Fans of Rock & Brews can still visit their other Florida locations in Orlando, Oviedo, and Kissimmee.

🔥 Spring Housing Market Heats Up as Mortgage Rates Cool Down

Driving the news: Mortgage rates have dipped below 7% as investors shift toward bonds amid stock market turmoil.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate now sits at 6.79%, down 10 basis points from last week, while the 15-year rate fell even further to 6.46%.

Details:

The decline follows a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which slid from 4.79% in mid-January to 4.22% this week.

Investors are turning to bonds as a “safe haven” in response to stock market volatility and inflation concerns linked to new tariffs.

Despite rate drops, affordability challenges persist due to high home prices and lean inventory.

Why it matters: Lower mortgage rates could help ease affordability concerns, especially for first-time buyers.

While home prices remain elevated, a dip in borrowing costs may help more buyers enter the market this spring.

The big picture:

Federal Reserve rate cuts are unlikely in the immediate future, with only 3% of traders betting on a cut at the next meeting.

Homebuilders face rising material costs due to new tariffs, potentially adding $7,500–$10,000 to the price of new homes.

Many buyers are still hesitant, as mortgage rates—though improving—remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels.

What’s next: If rates continue to decline, demand for housing could increase. However, affordability will remain a key concern, particularly as home prices and living costs stay high.

📊 Our Current Local Market Data:

The Tampa Bay housing market is shifting toward a more balanced state after years of rapid price growth. As of early 2025, the median home price is around $430,000, reflecting a moderate 4.8% year-over-year increase. Inventory is up 19%, with single-family homes at 3.5 months of supply and condos at 6.0 months, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power. Over 57% of listings now sit unsold for 60+ days, a stark contrast to the pandemic boom.

Despite cooling trends, Tampa remains a desirable market, supported by strong job growth—over 26,000 new jobs added in the past year. Elevated interest rates (6.5–7%) have slowed demand but also discouraged sellers from listing, keeping inventory in check. New construction is up 12%, especially in suburban areas like Pasco and Polk counties, but affordability remains a challenge with rising home prices and mortgage costs.

Insurance costs are another growing concern, with Florida’s homeowners' premiums averaging nearly $8,770 per year. Climate risks and hurricane exposure continue to impact buyer sentiment and property insurance costs. For buyers, longer time on market presents opportunities for better deals, while sellers must focus on pricing and marketing strategies to compete. Looking ahead, Tampa’s market is set for steady growth, shaped by economic strength, migration trends, and ongoing affordability and insurance challenges.