📈 Tampa Market in 3 Minutes, 4th Busiest US City in March & 80 acres sold in Pasco

Despite news headlines about falling home prices and concerns about what's coming in the future, Tampa still remains in the top 5 places people are relocating to in the US.

And what’s important to you is: What can we expect in 2023 & beyond based on real data? So, I wanted to take a few minutes to break down the market today.

• 📈 Tampa Housing Market in 3 Minutes: Is It Declining or Rebounding?

• 🔥 Tampa will be the 4th busiest city in America in March: 7 things to do

• 🚧 The Future of Tampa: 80 acres in Land O Lakes, Pebble Creek Luxury Redevelopment & groundbreaking 50-acre Gas Worx in Ybor

• 📊 The Latest Local Numbers as of Mar. 7th

• 📰 In Other News: Walkability, Wellness, Kitchen Trends, Pickleball, Osyter Rooms & more

The numbers: If you were purchasing a $400,000 home today at 7%, without taxes & fees that would be $2,661/mth.

At the average salary in Tampa, $59,876 = $4,989/mth = 53% debt to income without adding anything else. Lenders won’t approve above 50% and in most cases above 45%.

Compared to 2020-2021, where a $400K home at 3.5% = $1,796/mth.

Using the average salary = 36% debt-to-income which you could get approved for.

Why this matters: Buyers are not only paying more per month (ex. $800/mth more for the same house) but what they can get approved for fundamentally changed.

And since 99% of people have a lower mortgage rate than today’s current market rate, for many homeowners, it doesn’t make sense to move.

Big picture: This is why the massive shortage of homes for sale continues.

• Inventory of single-family homes fell by 2.5% this week to 418k. The fewest since last June

• Immediate sales picked up too. 18,000 homes got listed and went into contract right away. 24k last year at this time.

• Consumers are obviously price sensitive but still buying. The price of the new listings is $389,900 now vs. $399,000 last year.

• Here's a surprise: More homes went into contract this week than last year at this time! 69,000 vs. 68,000 last year.

What this means: People are getting used to mortgage rates and entering the market again. As demand continues to increase with no surge of supply because:

• New construction home starts continue to decline by 4.5% to 1.31 million annualized rate, down 21.4% from a year ago.

• Homeowners are moving. 90% of homeowners have mortgages at a fixed interest rate (99% are at a lower rate than the current market)

• People aren’t being forced to move. There’s lots of untapped equity and people are not over-leveraged (The rate of seriously past due mortgage debt was 0.6% as of the 4th quarter of 2022, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.)

What’s driving the news: Tampa will be the 4th busiest city in March with events generating over $144 million.

• Innings Festival, Baseball, food, and music including Imagine Dragons, Weezer, Pitbull, The Avett Brothers, and Dave Matthews Band in the parking lot of Raymond James Stadium will have an attendance of 75,000.

• The Florida Strawberry Festival, one of the biggest traditions if you take trip out to Plant City for wild rides, performances, and inventive strawberry-based treats has an anticipated attendance of 500,000 attendees.

• The Gasparilla International Film Festival, set for the end of March across multiple days, is expected to draw 100,000 attendees to the city from filmmakers, talent, producers, and film buffs.

• Our 30th Annual Hyde Park Village Fine Art Fair is set for March 25 and 26, PredictHQ’s algorithm anticipates an attendance of 90,000 people throughout the weekend.

• Green takes on multiple meanings in Tampa as Mayor Jane Castor’s River O’ Green Festival, including live entertainment, games, kids activities, food trucks, live performances, and of course, beer for St. Patrick’s Day as they turn the River green, returns March 18 and will bring in thousands & thousands of people.

• And the TASTE at The Straz, The Straz Center’s annual eat-and-drink extravaganza returns for one delicious evening with Bay area’s best food from 40+ restaurants, craft brews from 8 breweries, cocktails, 4 stages of live music and more, on April 1st will end the month.

What’s next? So if you’re looking for something to do in March, there’s no shortage.

But if you’re looking for something more relaxing for Spring Break then you may want to check out these 5 campgrounds in Florida that made the top 10 in the US:

1. Pecan Park (Jacksonville, FL) – #7 Best Campgrounds in America

2. Flamingo Lake (Jacksonville, FL) – #5 Best Campgrounds for Pet Lovers

3. Sun Outdoors Sarasota (Sarasota, FL) – #1 Best Campgrounds for 55+ Adventurers

4. Horseshoe Cove RV Resort (Bradenton, FL) – #3 Best Campgrounds for 55+ Adventurers

5. Lake San Marino RV Resort (Naples, FL) – #4 Best Campgrounds for 55+ Adventurers

• Pulte has closed on an additional 80 acres in Pasco County, allowing for about 100 more homes in the Whispering Pines community. Pulte Homes now plans to build a total of 330 single-family homes off of Lake Patience Road in Land O’ Lakes, according to a news release. The Atlanta-based builder will hold a grand opening for phase 1 of the community on March 25. Prices will hover around the low $400K’s

• GL Homes, a luxury South Florida homebuilder wants to redevelop Pebble Creek shuttered golf course. They filed a rezoning request with Hillsborough County to redevelop off of Bruce B. Downs and Cross Creek boulevards. They plan to begin construction on the development about 18 months after receiving approvals, Cremer said. Homes would be priced in the $600,000s.

• Gas Worx, a transformational 50-acre development in Ybor City. Once complete, Gas Worx will include nearly 5,000 new residences, over 500,000 square feet of office space, and more than 140,000 square feet of new retail broke ground this week.

• Lennar is planning a 2,100-home master-planned community in Manatee County. It’s officially selling homes in Prosperity Lakes in Parrish. Prosperity Lakes is over 1,000 acres, and Lennar says it will offer 31 different floor plans within the community. Prosperity Lakes offers townhouses priced from the low $300,000s that range from 1,747 to 2,162 square feet with three to four bedrooms and two bathrooms. The single-family homes will be similarly priced and range from 1,448 to 3,354 square feet with three to five bedrooms and two to four bathrooms. Lennar hasn't yet revealed pricing for the 55-and-up homes in Prosperity Lakes. Those houses will range from 1,486 to 2,775 square feet with two to three bedrooms and two to three bathrooms.

📊 The Latest Local Numbers

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That's all for this one!

Talk soon,

- Sean, the Bello Home Team

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