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😯 Tampa Markets Favor Buyers & $100M Riverwalk Project

😯 Tampa Markets Favor Buyers & $100M Riverwalk Project

Check out what's happening in the Pasco and Tampa economies this week.

Sean Bates
September 05, 2024

Happy Thursday!

We have a lot of news good about Tampa Bay this week!

Tampa's starter-home market has shown promise in recent months, and Florida has been ranked nationally for 9 of the top 10 best markets for buyers.

We are also taking a look at a $100 million reconstruction plan for the Tampa Riverwalk is set to begin later this year!

—Sean

🏠 Navigating Tampa Bay’s Evolving Starter Home Market

Driving the news: Recent data from Redfin reveals a surge in activity in the Tampa Bay starter-home market, showing a 10.2% year-over-year increase in pending sales of starter homes nationwide as of July.

This uptick marks the highest level of pending sales since October 2022, suggesting a positive shift for first-time homebuyers in a market that has been notably pricey and sluggish.

Details:

Price Growth Trends: Starter homes, defined as properties in the bottom 35% of local market value, saw a 4.2% increase in sales prices over the past year in Tampa Bay. This is slower compared to the 7.9% rise for luxury homes, 5% for upper-priced homes, and 4.6% for middle-priced homes.
Inventory Shifts: The availability of starter homes grew significantly, with active listings up by 48% year over year, while homes sold in this segment dipped slightly by 1.9%. Inventory for these homes increased by 18.9%, reaching its highest level since October 2022.
Market Dynamics: Other segments of the housing market, such as mid-range and higher-end homes, experienced more modest inventory growth of 4.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Despite these increases, overall inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels, with about 30% fewer starter homes available compared to July 2019.

Why it matters: The growth in the starter-home market is a positive sign for Tampa Bay, particularly for first-time homebuyers who have faced challenges finding affordable options.

With the slower price growth and increased inventory, potential buyers have more choices, potentially easing entry into the housing market.

This trend also supports local economic activity, as more home sales typically lead to increased demand for related services and products, from home renovations to furnishings.

The big picture: The uptick in starter-home activity is not unique to Tampa Bay. The trend aligns with broader national patterns where first-time homebuyers are re-entering the market.

However, regions like Tampa Bay are still experiencing a balancing act between rising inventories and cooling prices, especially in the Sun Belt markets like Florida and Texas, which have seen some of the largest price declines over the past year.

By the numbers:

Median Sale Price of Starter Homes in Tampa Bay: $250,000, making it the third highest in Florida.
Cities with Notable Price Increases: Detroit (+15.6%), Newark, NJ (+15.4%), Pittsburgh (+13.6%).
Fastest Sales Turnaround: Seattle (7 days on the market), Montgomery County, PA (11 days), Warren County, MI (12 days).

Between the lines: While inventory is rising, Tampa Bay’s starter homes are still priced on the higher end relative to other Florida markets, potentially limiting access for some buyers.

The continued increase in listings suggests a shift towards a more buyer-friendly market, but the overall inventory shortfall compared to pre-pandemic levels indicates that supply challenges remain.

What’s next: As Tampa Bay continues to experience a slow but steady rise in inventory, potential homebuyers might find more favorable conditions.

However, they should remain cautious and monitor market dynamics closely, especially given the ongoing economic uncertainties and fluctuating interest rates.

The bottom line: The Tampa Bay starter-home market is showing promising signs for first-time buyers with increased inventory and relatively slower price growth, but challenges remain due to high median prices and limited supply compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Local stakeholders should leverage this trend to boost economic activity and support more sustainable housing growth.

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🚶‍♂️ Straz Center's $100M Expansion: A New Chapter for Tampa's Riverwalk

Driving the news: The Straz Center for the Performing Arts is set to take its next significant step in expansion, with a building permit filed on August 26.

This move follows last month’s approval of the $56.8 million Tampa Riverwalk development. The expansion, estimated at $100 million, could begin before the end of 2024 if permits are approved.

Details:

Outdoor Enhancements: The focus of this phase is on creating more public spaces, particularly outdoors, to accommodate non-ticketed events. A new permanent stage will replace the temporary one facing the Riverwalk, inviting pedestrians to enjoy performances as they walk by.
Architectural Improvements: A large veil will be added to shade areas and soften the center's Brutalist architecture, making it more welcoming and accessible.
Expanded Facilities: The expansion will include more restaurant and office space, a 2,000-square-foot rooftop, and a grand terrace that connects to the Riverwalk, offering flexible spaces for a variety of uses.

Why it matters: The Straz Center’s expansion is a win for Tampa’s cultural scene. By enhancing public access and creating new flex-use spaces, the center is set to become a more integral part of the community.

The development promises to attract both locals and visitors, boosting the area’s vibrancy and economic activity.

The big picture: This project aligns with Tampa’s broader efforts to revitalize the Riverwalk area, integrating the arts into the fabric of the city.

The Straz Center’s plans emphasize inclusivity and accessibility, ensuring that the arts are available to everyone in the Tampa Bay region.

What’s next: If all goes according to plan, construction could begin later this year, with the new spaces potentially opening to the public by 2026.

This timeline will be crucial in maintaining momentum for the Riverwalk’s ongoing development.

The bottom line: The Straz Center’s expansion is set to transform not only the center itself but also the surrounding Riverwalk area, enhancing Tampa Bay’s cultural landscape and making the arts more accessible to all.

🤝 Florida Ranks Nationally for Buyer-Friendly Housing Markets

Driving the news: Realtor.com® has identified the top 10 most and least buyer-friendly housing markets in the U.S. These rankings are based on various metrics, including median list prices, inventory changes, and the pace of the market.

The analysis reveals a stark contrast between markets in Florida and Texas, which favor buyers, and markets in the Northeast and Midwest, which remain challenging for prospective homeowners.

Details:

Buyer-friendly markets: Florida dominates the list, with nine out of the ten easiest markets located in the state. Lubbock, Texas, claims the number one spot, thanks to an 80% increase in homes for sale and a more extended market presence, resulting in price reductions.
Challenging markets: Erie, Pennsylvania, tops the list of the most challenging markets for buyers, with a 5.6% drop in active listings, rapid sales, and rising prices. Other difficult markets include Syracuse, NY, and Rochester, NY, where homes sell quickly and competition remains fierce.

The full list:

The 10 Easiest Markets for Homebuyers:

Lubbock, TX
Punta Gorda, FL
Lakeland, FL
Crestview, FL
Tampa, FL
North Port, FL
Miami, FL
Port St. Lucie, FL
Gainesville, FL
Orlando, FL

The 10 Most Challenging Markets for Homebuyers:

Erie, PA
Syracuse, NY
Rochester, NY
Canton, OH
Kalamazoo, MI
Manchester, NH
Norwich, CT
Sioux Falls, SD
Toledo, OH
York, PA

Why it matters: These findings highlight significant regional differences in the U.S. housing market. In Florida and Texas, increased housing supply and slower price growth offer buyers more leverage, potentially benefiting those looking to relocate or invest in these areas.

Conversely, buyers in the Northeast and Midwest face higher prices and tighter inventory, making the search for affordable housing more challenging.

The big picture: The U.S. housing market continues to adjust post-pandemic, with some areas becoming more accessible to buyers while others remain hot and competitive.

The trend reflects a migration towards more affordable markets and away from traditionally high-demand areas.

Between the lines: The varying market conditions reflect broader economic factors, such as regional employment opportunities, housing supply chain issues, and shifts in buyer preferences.

The rise in inventory in certain markets could be due to cooling demand or an increase in new home construction.

What’s next: Buyers in favorable markets like Florida might continue to see good opportunities for negotiations and lower prices.

The bottom line: The U.S. housing market presents a mixed landscape for homebuyers, with opportunities for both strategic purchases and cautious investment, depending on the region.

If you're a first-time buyer, Florida is a great place to be searching for a home this fall.